PE-HVAC Roll-Up Math and Market Fragmentation in 2026

Private equity firms are aggressively acquiring HVAC companies due to recurring service-agreement revenue, a fragmented market with over 100,000 US operators, and multiple arbitrage opportunities. Platforms buy at 6-9x EBITDA and bolt-ons at 4-6x, exiting at 8-12x after integration.

“PE is buying HVAC companies because the sector combines everything a sponsor wants: recurring service-agreement revenue (35-50% of platform revenue at scale), a wildly fragmented market (30,000+ US operators), high margins on maintenance work, and immediate multiple arbitrage. Buy a platform at 7-9x EBITDA, bolt on add-ons at 4-6x, and the blended multiple compounds.”

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